Are there really 23 million wireless data subscribers?

The Yankee Group says that there will be 23 million wireless data subscribers by the end of 2003, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 83% to a 2006 total of 129 million. Wireless data revenue will grow from $70 million this year to $5.8 billion in that period.
I don’t know what is meant by “subscribers” in this number, but the revenue per subscriber will be $.25/sub/mo in 2002 and $3.75/sub/mo in 2006. This is a far cry from what SrintPCS and AT&T Mobile are charging for these services right now.
Clearly, a lot of this usage is incidental. I’m sure it includes the $.78 that I spent on SprintPCS Wireless Web access last month in a fit of bored curiousity.
Meanwhile, TMobile is set to release the staggeringly cool Danger Labs’ Hiptop (as the TMobile Sidekick) October 1, for $200 after rebate, and $40 per month for 200 anytime minutes and unlimited web and email. The outstanding design of this gadget and its elegant pricing plan makes this the first mobile Internet service that has a prayer in the market.
I wouldn’t rush to release a wireless-specific application right now, but I would be working hard to make sure my content management system and site design used XML and CSS so that I could deliver one on quick notice once it made sense.